The more the Europeans and Americans try to make inroads into Russia's backyard, the more abrasive and aggressive Russia will become. While the actual combat in Georgia is over, the real battle is just beginning. And this war has far-reaching consequences for Turkey.Following the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the Russian political elites never got over the fact that they had lost the empire. Russia spent the last 10 years recovering from the ruins of the old Russian Empire and making a comeback militarily and economically. Under Vladimir Putin's iron-fisted rule, Moscow was able to garner enough political capital to boost the self-confidence of the Russians. While the Bush administration wasted the last eight years with a meaningless and mostly dysfunctional war on terror, Putin reinvented Russia through authoritarianism and semi-capitalist development. Now Russia feels strong enough to flex its muscles in the region again. Throughout the '90s, Russia was busy with the wars of independence from Chechnya to Dagestan. Putin used brutal force in Chechnya to send a message to all potential breakaway republics under Russian rule. The Western bloc was happy that Russia was bogged down in internal conflict. To the surprise of many in both Russia and the West, Moscow managed to crush all claims of independence with the silent approval of the West. Now the Western bloc is faced with a Russia that is sure of itself and willing to show its newly gained strength.
The offer to grant Georgia NATO protection and possibly EU membership is just what Russia needed to confront Europeans and Americans. Everybody knows that the current Russia-Georgia war is a proxy war and that Russia has the military capacity to destroy Georgia. Instead of going for overkill, Moscow will now try to weaken Georgia by breaking away South Ossetia and Abhkazia, the two autonomous regions under Georgian rule. Russia's real goal is to set up a geo-political wall between Central Asian energy resources and the West and make the West dependent upon Russia both in terms of energy and regional politics. Some conspiracy theories suggest that the Europeans want South Ossetia and Abkhazia to go independent so that they can accept into their bosom a Georgia free of territorial disputes and ethnic tensions. It is difficult to assess the truth value of this claim. But it is very unlikely that Europeans, even under intense American pressure, will be willing to bring a packet of Caucasian problems into the heart of Europe by granting Georgia membership in NATO and the EU.
There is another important development that concerns all parties, but especially Turkey: the possibility of an armed struggle by Abkhazians for independence. Some sources suggest that Russians, while giving the impression that they're pulling out from Georgian territories, are arming Abkhazians and South Ossetians to start their wars of independence. If this is true, then we should be ready for much more turmoil in the region in the months to come.
Now, Turkey supports Georgia's territorial integrity. Any new small states in the region create only more problems and Turkey is acutely aware of this. But what will Turkey do if they're faced with a choice between supporting Tbilisi (and the Western bloc) and Abkhazia's struggle for independence? If Turkey acts with the Western bloc and supports Tbilisi, it will not only alienate the Abkhazians, who have a sizeable presence in Turkey, but also confront Moscow. If it supports an independent state or more autonomy for Abkhazians (and South Ossetians), then it will be on a collision course with Europe and the US. In both scenarios, Turkey will face a tough situation. The only way to prevent this current skirmish from turning into an all-out war is to persuade Russia to hold back and convince Europeans to put off their Georgian plans. Who can do this and how is a big question. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's visit to Moscow and then to Tbilisi was timely and important. But it will take an enormous amount of political capital and shuttle diplomacy to get any concrete results before positions are hardened and irreversible steps are taken.
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