Politics over dinner

The Association of Cooperation with European Countries (AVİDER) hosted an iftar dinner for Turkish and foreign correspondents as well as journalists at İstanbul's magnificent Malta Köşk, a summer palace-style historic building nestled in lush forests only a few minutes' walk from the bustling Beşiktaş neighborhood and more than worth a visit.

Events like these are perfect opportunities to ask questions we may not necessarily be able to get answers to during more formal gatherings. Shortly after the keynote speaker, Suat Kınıklıoğlu (a Justice and Development Party [AK Party] deputy in Parliament and the deputy chairman of the party's Foreign Affairs Committee), addressed the audience, I felt the urge to ask a question.

Kınıklıoğlu, with whom I had the pleasure to share a Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research (SETA) panel in Ankara about Turkey's political lobbying strategy some time ago, expertly addressed the Caucasus dimension of Turkish foreign policy and reassuringly explained to the assembled members of the media the state of progress with regard to normalizing relations with Turkey's neighbor Armenia -- in particular focusing on the envisaged opening of the border crossings. The positive role Turkey can play in the Middle East peace process was mentioned, too. After a colleague's remark about the (non)-state of the Mediterranean Union, I thought it appropriate to raise the issue of how the present Turkish government aims to convince party political movements assembled in the European Parliament about the benefits of Turkey's EU accession -- and ask them to support it more wholeheartedly -- and whether any progress had been made so far in establishing more formal contacts. The same morning I had contributed to a UK-based blog, asking the reverse question to British policymakers.

What I heard in response was very interesting. I hope I did not misinterpret the speaker's reply insofar as that the enthusiasm for joining the European Union might have lost momentum in the decision-making circles of the ruling AK Party. What worried me was a certain “reading between the lines” that if, for example, Berlin and Paris would exert even more influence in the EU and ultimately block Turkey's EU accession, there would be alternatives. What kind of alternatives? The speaker then stated that not joining the EU would not mean the end of the road for Turkey's development -- a statement I fully agree with -- but is it not too early, not even halfway through the accession process, to already now state that if it does not work out, there are alternatives? While those circles in Europe who at present oppose Turkey's EU accession would have a field day, minority groups in Turkey oppose the idea that Turkey's membership would be given an enormous boost, too: politically speaking, a fatal alliance.

Until Brussels openly backtracks from its legally binding promises to continue accession talks, which is a highly unlikely scenario unless Ankara stops complying with the accession criteria, Turkish policymakers should not create an impression of doom and gloom when explaining to their own public the state of EU accession matters as this could one day become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

In 2005, at a conference held at Galatasaray University, a young Turkish member of the audience asked me about my perception of Turkey and how I see Turkey's EU accession process. I replied that my greatest concern is not how to convince Brussels, Berlin or Paris, as realpolitik will hopefully take the upper hand again once the time has come to formally accept Turkey as a new EU member country, but that personally speaking I see a certain danger that after most, if not all, EU member states have said “yes” to Turkey, either the Turkish Parliament or its people will say “no!”

A piece of good news: The large majority of EU countries view matters exactly from the opposite perspective, and this is where a proactive Turkey must build lasting alliances. The political parties in the European Parliament are one of the key allies to convince European voters to reflect upon the positive aspect of having Turkey as a full member.