Their attitudes prove that they will no longer threaten each other, putting an end to the policy of antagonism in economic, political and strategic levels. This new state of affairs, which is promising for world peace, provides some advantages for Turkey. You may recall that under the George W. Bush presidency, we had a crisis when US battleships wanted to penetrate the Black Sea. Turkey then faced the risk of being stuck between the US and Russia. In every bilateral crisis between Washington and Moscow, Turkey, who cherishes its strategic cooperation with both countries, is constantly pushed to make a choice: to support one side, making the other one angry; in brief, to pay a price.
Besides, had the US maintained its initial project of installing the missile defense system in Eastern Europe, Russia would do the same, and it would even threaten the West through energy and terrorism issues. Because of the Russian threats over the West, Turkey wouldn't be able to pursue its balancing policy, and it would have to make a choice, positioning itself probably on the West's side. Then, Russia would punish Turkey, along with several other countries. We must also remember that European countries are much more frightened of a threat from Russia than the US is. Their second fear would be seeing Turkey supporting Russia. In that case, energy security, illegal immigration and political instability in Turkey would be unmanageable, transforming Turkey into Europe's “eastern wall.” Maybe then, they would work much harder to win Turkey back, and this country's EU accession process would advance swiftly.
We are able to imagine such a scenario because we know that some people in Europe believe that a “threat” is needed to justify Turkey's accession. They don't notice the importance of accepting the presence of a country that contributes to the US-Russia rapprochement among them. As long as Turkey is left outside of Europe, Ankara has to concentrate its diplomatic efforts around Russia and the US. Getting along with both countries seems relatively easy today, but as Georgia, Iran, Ukraine, Israel and Iraq's future stances are hard to predict, for how long can this balance be preserved? And one shouldn't expect that Turkey, subject to every possible tension between Russia and the US, would defend the EU's interests.
Obama's strategic decision is a historical one and so is Russia's decision to accept it. But, the EU spends too much time clarifying its position. Some important members' lack of strategic vision doesn't help the EU reach a decision. Instead, this helps other actors make decisions for the EU. There is a new configuration in the global system on financial, strategic and human levels, and the actors' unilateral movement capacities are constantly diminishing. The US and Russia have already noticed this fact, and they have chosen to act together in order to widen their room to maneuver. And they don't even ask what European countries think about it.
This course of events will inaugurate a new period for the Turkey-EU relationship. Whether this period will be positive or not depends on the EU's attitude. Maybe the EU will choose to waste this opportunity. In that case, will we have to wait for China to threaten Europe one day to make some EU countries realize that Turkey is a necessary asset for the EU?
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