Turkey is trying to abolish deep-rooted psychological barriers with these countries by establishing diplomatic, economic and commercial ties. In the past, Turkey had assumed that Syria and Armenia had followed a similar foreign policy agenda with respect to Turkey. The peoples of both countries were accused of cooperating with Turkey's adversaries during the period leading up to the foundation of the Turkish Republic. Both countries were considered enemies of Turks during the Cold War because their presence in or alliance with the Soviet Union, an archenemy, easily classified them among “the others.” This negative atmosphere was also the result of the fact that these countries both supported terrorist organizations attacking Turkey. There was also a general impression that they were both used by some Western powers, especially France, in its anti-Turkey policies.Nevertheless, Turkey is today seeking a new partnership and grounds for cooperation without forgetting historical problems, but at least putting them aside. The simultaneous radical change in Turkey's attitude toward these countries does not only mean Syria and Armenia are linked to each other, it also means that a real radical change is happening on the global level and affecting all countries in our region.
We can expect these openings to contribute to an atmosphere in favor of liberal economies and liberal democracy in Armenia and Syria, as well as in Turkey. In addition, the new situation will push Syria to rearrange its relations with Israel and Iran, just like Armenia, which will have to revise its position toward Azerbaijan and Iran. This reshaping will force Azerbaijan and Israel to reconsider their domestic and foreign policies, too, because the conditions are changing for everyone. It is obvious that Turkey will not unconditionally support Azerbaijan and Israel from now on. Russia is no longer considered the main threat countries in the region strive to oppose and the US is seeking to construct new alliances. In brief, the equation of being with someone against someone else is not as “easy” as it used to be.
Turkey's direct bilateral relations with Armenia, Azerbaijan, Israel and Iraq, along with its indirect bilateral relations with Iran, constitute a new “region” which can be qualified as a new sub-system. The US and Russia are working together to put in place this sub-system, one based on economic cooperation and stability. For the moment, the European Union is content with watching these developments, which are promising for the region's players, all of whom are eager to see more stability and prosperity. Furthermore, this allows the US and Russia to retain their superiority in the military and energy domains, respectively.
If everything goes as predicted, countries that insist on keeping an aggressive tone in their domestic and foreign policies will find themselves out of the game. That is why readopting a policy based on disagreements is most undesired. We should follow attentively the ups and downs between Turkey and Israel and between Iraq and Syria, or the future of the crises between Iran and Israel, Georgia and Russia and Azerbaijan and Armenia. These developments will help expose countries that prefer to remain outside of the new game. It would be a great mistake to miss the timing and not benefit from the new configuration.
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