Why is Russia supportive of the initiative?

If this is true, then this rumor has significance beyond being a simple polemic. What many have wondered since the start of the Armenian initiative is why Russia is supporting it. As a matter of fact, Armenia's normalizing ties with Turkey and Azerbaijan implies that Armenia will follow the lead of Azerbaijan and Georgia in shifting toward a pro-Western stance, thereby further isolating Russia from the region.

Moreover, Russia has been party to the Azerbaijani-Armenian dispute. While armed clashes continued between Azerbaijan and Armenia, Turkey intended to hold a military exercise near the border. But, even such a symbolic move considerably bothered Russia, which sent its chief of general staff to Yerevan to given this strongly worded message: If Turkey becomes part of the crisis, World War III will erupt.

Also, given the political and military agreements signed between the two countries as well as their historical and economic relations, it was obvious that the Kremlin had the biggest influence in Armenia. The answer a US official who knows the region well gave me a while ago when I asked him to compare the influences of Washington and Kremlin on Yerevan confirmed this argument. Indeed, he confessed that Russian influence was far greater than that of the US.

Therefore, it was evident that the key to the success of the initiative, i.e., the normalization of relations between Armenia and Turkey, was Russia. Indeed, although this was not specifically stated in the protocols signed on Oct. 10 in Zurich, Armenia had to start pulling out -- though partially -- from Azerbaijani territories it had taken over in order to achieve a viable settlement. And people were intrigued by the legitimate question, "Will Russia use its influence for the sake of settlement?" This despite the fact that Turkish-Russian relations have improved considerably in recent years.

When I put this question to former Russian Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov, who had come to Turkey to promote his book "Russia and the Arabs: Behind the Scenes in the Middle East from the Cold War to the Present," he gave a considerably optimistic reply. Primakov pointed out that he does not agree with the argument that Armenia's normalizing ties with Azerbaijan and Turkey is not in the interests of Russia. "Yes, we have perfect ties with Yerevan, but our relations with Turkey are better. Turkish-Armenian tension is damaging to us. We will be considerably pleased if the dispute between Azerbaijan and Armenia is settled. This is likely, though it is very hard, and we will work hard on it," he said.

This matter was also discussed at the Turkish-Russian Workshop, held by the Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research (SETA). Fatih Özbay, an associate professor at İstanbul University, replied to the question "Why should Russia support the process?” by providing three justifications: (1) The international system is in favor of a change in the status quo in the Caucasus. Russia does not want to stay outside this change. (2) Russia does not approve of Yerevan's engagement in any conflict because this may entail Russian involvement. (3) The war in Georgia has further isolated Armenia as Kremlin's strategic partner. Some relief may be provided to Yerevan via Turkey.

Azerbaijani Professor Akif Fazaliyev, associated with St. Petersburg University, also stresses this point, saying: "As a matter of fact, the existing situation is in favor of Baku. As Armenia becomes poor, Azerbaijan is growing stronger. From what I have learned from my Armenian students, the situation there is worse. Seventy percent of the population has left the country. Russia supports the process in order to prevent this country, which it had built to be against Turkey and Iran, from being weakened more." While he regards the opening of the border in return for the elimination of the occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh, the Azerbaijani professor says the Russians are masters of chess. He cautions that if any step is taken without a settlement, the Kremlin may pull Baku to its side.