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BERİL DEDEOĞLU b.dedeoglu@todayszaman.com Columnists

Iran’s expectations and expectations from Iran


The efforts aimed at dissuading Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons are continuing. The talks in Vienna between the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Russia and the United States have provided a common ground for dialogue, revitalizing hopes. These talks can avoid many risks on the global level and especially in the Middle Eastern region, and they can help Iran “come back” into the system. 

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However, it seems that the quest for direct and indirect dialogue is not free of all complications. Iran created a mini crisis when it saw the French delegation on the negotiation table, and it reiterated its will to make the deal only with Russia and the United States. In brief, Iran has demonstrated that Europe’s intention to make itself part of the negotiations makes things more difficult for everyone. Just before this crisis, a major terrorist attack supposedly linked to al-Qaeda hit Iran’s Revolutionary Guards. Maybe it was a coincidence that this attack happened while the Pakistani forces were carrying out strikes in the Waziristan region in Afghanistan in the name of the fight against terrorism.  

It’s obvious that some people have tried to warn Iran through terror. It is important to emphasize that this warning came at a time when Iran showed its willingness to negotiate with the West about its nuclear intentions. It’s doubtful that in a country where Shiites are the majority, a terrorist attack perpetrated by Sunnis will be able to provoke the political rifts that appeared during the presidential election period. However, this kind of attack may provoke social unrest. It appears that those who have committed this attack don’t want Iran to normalize its relations with the West over the nuclear issue.

If Iran ensures that it won’t produce nuclear weapons, other nuclear countries in the region will face much more pressure than today. If Iran normalizes its relations with the West, those in the Taliban/al-Qaeda camp who claim that the West targets all Muslims will be very embarrassed. Those who preserve their political power by presenting the United States and Russia as major threats will find themselves in a delicate position, and those who build their foreign relations on the thesis that Iran constitutes a tremendous threat will have to revise their attitudes. Iran’s guarantees of not producing nuclear weapons will have bigger effects on the Middle Eastern balances than its decision to go ahead with their production. The question of which countries Iran will choose to develop its relations with following its decision not to acquire nuclear weapons makes all regional and global players pay attention to Iran’s maneuvers.

Iran has become the symbolic engagement ring of the United States and Russia, two essential players in the ongoing game. The fact that Moscow and Washington agree on Iran disturbs some Middle Eastern states, some European countries and the “hawks” within the US and Russia. In this context, there is an apparent link between Iran’s stance in Vienna and the recent terror attack in this country. However, the Iranian authorities give the impression that they will not change their position because of a few terror attacks and that they will try to maintain the common ground of dialogue somehow. But Iran will be put to the test in the future, too. As an example, the Israeli and American armed forces will organize joint maneuvers in Israel with the scenario of a hypothetic Iranian attack and the measures that should be developed against such an event. Let’s hope that Iran will not make mistakes because of provocation it has to endure like the surprise in Vienna, the recent terror attack and these maneuvers.

24 October 2009, Saturday
BERİL DEDEOĞLU
Comments on this article

alpteginturkey , Nov 09 2009 16:45, Monday
İran must stop nuclear enrichment process for worldpeace. If Iran contınue develop nuclear facılıtıes, the big powers of...
mike , Oct 24 2009 07:44, Saturday
It's rather funny how you don't mention the main problem that is going in iran. There is domestic chaos as we speak, due...

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Columnists
ABDULHAMİT BİLİCİ
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ALİ H. ASLAN
AMANDA PAUL
ANDREW FINKEL
ASIM ERDİLEK
AYŞE KARABAT
BEJAN MATUR
BERİL DEDEOĞLU
BERK ÇEKTİR
BÜLENT KENEŞ
BÜLENT KORUCU
CHARLOTTE MCPHERSON
DOĞU ERGİL
EKREM DUMANLI
EMRE USLU
ETYEN MAHÇUPYAN
FATMA DİŞLİ ZIBAK
FİKRET ERTAN
GÜRKAN ZENGİN
HASAN KANBOLAT
HÜSEYİN GÜLERCE
İBRAHİM KALIN
İBRAHİM ÖZTÜRK
İHSAN DAĞI
İHSAN YILMAZ
KATHY HAMILTON
KERİM BALCI
KLAUS JURGENS
LALE KEMAL
MEHMET KAMIŞ
MICHAEL KUSER
MUHAMMED ÇETİN
MÜMTAZER TÜRKÖNE
NICOLE POPE
ÖMER TAŞPINAR
ORHAN KEMAL CENGİZ
PAT YALE
ŞAHİN ALPAY
SELÇUK GÜLTAŞLI
SUAT KINIKLIOĞLU
YAVUZ BAYDAR