While Pearl Harbor drew the US into World War II, Erdoğan’s visit to the US on that day may mark a period that will ease US concerns over the Middle East due to Turkey’s outreach to neighbors, mostly in its near abroad, as part of a “zero problems” policy. But if this policy is sabotaged by ultranationalist Turks through various means such as blocking the country’s Kurdish initiative, which stands as a key in implementing successful foreign policy goals, this will help neither Turkey nor the US.
It is also a possibility in a country like Turkey for a bomb to explode near Syria, derailing ongoing good relations with this country.
In addition, Turkey has opposition parties that can at any time politically sabotage the Kurdish reform process that entered a stalemate after the return of outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) members from mountains was halted for the time being in reaction to public outrage to cheerful demonstrations that took place in the predominantly Kurdish Southeast.
Under the Obama administration, the US has been seeking dialogue with foes such as Iran while addressing strained relations with Russia. The US has also been working hard to restart peace talks between Palestinians and Israel.
US Ambassador to Turkey James Jeffrey on Oct. 23 told a group of Turkish journalists in Ankara that Washington has been following closely Turkey’s zero problems policy with its neighbors as well as its efforts to normalize relations with Armenia in the northeast, indicating that these policies will be taken up during Erdoğan’s visit to his country.
However, Jeffrey indicated during the same meeting with the press that strained Turkish-Israeli ties did not help intense US efforts to convince the new government under Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel to pursue peace.
“We are telling Israel that it has to take risks for peace with Muslims; i.e., Palestinians. We are telling Israel, ‘If you take a positive step, you will see Muslims will also take positive steps in response.’ In order to convince Israel of this, we need to cite a positive example. Thus a bad example due to strained relations between Israel and Turkey [a Muslim nation] makes difficult US efforts to find peace among the parties. The US can convince Israel to take positive steps towards Muslims if Turkish-Israeli relations are warmer,” Jeffrey noted.
Turkish-Israeli relations have been badly strained following Turkey’s recent exclusion of Israel from the Anatolian Eagle NATO exercises. The snub came at the last minute in reaction to Israel’s Gaza assault early this year. Better relations between Turkey and Israel will also strengthen Obama’s hand against Netanyahu.
Erdoğan’s visit will take place at a time when there has been increased concern over whether Turkey is moving towards the East or distancing itself from the West.
Turkish Prime Minister Erdoğan’s renewed remarks over Iran -- namely, that this country has the right to develop nuclear energy for peaceful purposes and that the world in general and the Middle East region in particular should be relieved of nuclear arms [this was an indirect reference to Israel, which possesses nuclear capability] -- has irked some Western capitals raising question marks over NATO member Turkey’s stance on Tehran, in particular, and its foreign policy choices, in general.
Both Erdoğan and President Abdullah Gül denied that there has been a change in Turkish orientation due to its policy of developing relations to its east. Despite setbacks in membership talks, Turkey has been a candidate member country for full EU membership.
For veteran Turkish diplomats, current Turkish policies are the continuation of the principles of the founder of the Republic of Turkey, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk. Atatürk is reported as having said, “Peace at home, peace in the world.” But this is the first time Turkey has been making faster and concrete steps in reaching that goal.
A nonaggression pact, called the Saadabad Pact, between Turkey, Iran, Afghanistan and Iraq was signed in 1937 and the Central Treaty Organization (also referred to as CENTO, or as the Baghdad Pact) adopted in 1955 by Iran, Iraq, Pakistan, Turkey and the United Kingdom before it was dissolved in 1979, can be cited as examples of Turkish endeavors for good relations with its neighbors.
Erdoğan’s visit to the US will take place against this background; namely, fears of a change in Turkish orientation in foreign policy and its zero problems policy with neighbors.
In my opinion, if the Turkish policy of reaching out to neighbors while furthering Kurdish reforms works smoothly, this will be Erdoğan’s Christmas gift to Obama at a time when the US president has been seeking an effective partner in the Middle East.
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