“Just look at the dangerous neighborhood we inhabit,” he said and began reeling off a list of querulous capitals that included Kabul, Baghdad, not to mention Ankara. Yet despite this unfortunate geography, he maintained Iran managed to remain an “an island of stability.” This is phrase that has resonance in Iran because it was used by Jimmy Carter to describe the regime of the Shah. At the time, it was also commonly used by Turkey’s own leadership to describe the difficulties they faced and in particular to justify the slow pace of domestic reform. If only, the lament ran, there were no dogfights over the Aegean, nor wars of attrition in the Caucasus, nor unruly neighbors abetting Kurdish insurrection. If only Turkey could move house to a comfortable neighborhood between Lichtenstein and Switzerland then it, too, might harvest the peace dividend which so much of Europe had enjoyed at the end of the Cold War.This was before 9/11 and the Gulf War, and it came as something of an eye-opener to discover a looking-glass image of Turkey’s own complaint. But of course from Tehran’s perspective Ankara was still part of the old world order that had sustained the Shah. Relations with Ankara were solid. At the same time, Turkey was remembered as a country which had been a war time profiteer during the 1980s struggle between Iran and Iraq just as it was then suffering from the embargo against Saddam Hussein. Worst of all, while even Bulgaria was trying to shape up to join the European Union, Turkey was fighting an archaic ethnic conflict in its own Southeast. Although Iran was sometimes suspected of giving succor to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), it was itself concerned that conflict would spill over the border into its own soil.
So if there has been one immediate advantage to the present Turkish foreign ministry emphasis on “zero problems” and on getting along with even the grumpiest of its neighbors it is that at the rhetorical level, at least, Ankara is no longer looking abroad for excuses. Instead, the government is pursuing a policy of infinite problems with what it would define as domestic reactionaries: a cabal-laden military, a judiciary that wants to run the country and a political opposition convinced the world is flat. If the present, and by most accounts, oppressive Constitution is to be changed, it will be the consequence of Turkey grappling with its homegrown demons and mustering the political will.
This new sense of its own independence can, however, be a double-edged sword. In the old days, if a government wanted to make difficult reforms it could do so by explaining that this was a precondition for negotiations with the EU. Brussels’ leverage over Turkish domestic policy is, nowadays, at an all time low. And what happens to a “zero problems with neighbors” policy, if there are genuine problems?
It seems unlikely that Manouchehr Mottaki, the present Iranian foreign minister, could in good conscience define the nation today as an island of stability. To the outside world it appears to be wrestling with a crisis of legitimization affecting the whole regime. Victory of the Islamic Revolution Day, this Thursday, risks becoming yet another confrontation between the opposition and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad loyalists. At the same time there appear to be growing divisions within the ruling elite. While some feel it is time to stop pulling the tail of the international community by developing nuclear capability, for others support for the nuclear program is the shibboleth by which loyalty is judged. The conventional pundit wisdom is that the President Ahmadinejad would not be able to apply the brake, if that is what he wanted. The announcement earlier this week is that Iran intends to expand the number of its enrichment plants and increase the concentration of enrichment up from 3.5 percent to 20 percent. While this is not an easy project, it would be much less difficult jumping from 20 percent to weapons-grade. It is all reminiscent of the games of artless bluff which led to the invasion of Iraq in 2003. And while such an invasion is very far from the horizon, a priority for any Turkish government would be to strive for national unity.
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